Portugal Property Market Forecast 2026–2027 Outlook
INE 2025: 169,812 sales, +17.6% prices. Q1 2026 -4.7% QoQ. Bull, base and bear scenarios for 2026–2027 with IMT, supply and mortgage data.
By Portuguese Estate Editorial · Updated June 17, 2026 · 18 min read
Portugal Property Market Forecast 2026–2027
Quick Answer: After INE recorded 169,812 transactions and +17.6% national price growth in 2025, our portugal property market forecast 2026 centres on slower but positive appreciation. The base case is 6-9% price growth in 2026 and 4-6% in 2027, with volume flat to slightly down after Q1 2026’s -4.7% quarter-on-quarter transaction dip. Non-resident purchases already fell 13.3% in 2025; the September 2026 flat 7.5% IMT will cool international demand further. Offsetting forces include 41,592 new dwelling licences (supply still lagging in urban cores), and AICCOPN mortgage growth of +31% supporting domestic buyers. Bull, base and bear scenarios below translate these inputs into actionable ranges for Lisbon, Porto and the Algarve.
Forecasting Portugal property is not astrology. It is weighing verified INE transaction data, construction pipeline statistics, mortgage origination trends, and policy shocks that change who can afford to complete at escritura. This guide builds a portugal property market forecast 2026 and extends it through 2027 with three explicit scenarios — bull, base and bear — so you can stress-test a purchase, hold or exit decision against numbers, not agent slogans.
If you need the strategic hub for regional routing, yields and red flags, start with the Portugal property investment guide. If you are deciding whether the asset class still fits your return hurdle, cross-read is Portugal property a good investment in 2026. For tax timing that directly shifts our Q3 2026 volume forecast, see IMT tax for non-residents.
What does INE 2025 data tell us about the 2026 starting point?
Every credible portugal property market forecast 2026 must begin with INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística) residential statistics published in early 2026. Marketing copy without these anchors is guesswork.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential transactions | 156,359 | 169,812 | +8.6% |
| Total deal value | €33.9B | €41.2B | +21.7% |
| National price index (INE) | base | +17.6% YoY | — |
| Non-resident purchases | 9,771 | 8,471 | -13.3% |
| New dwelling licences | 34,625 | 41,592 | +20.1% |
| Non-resident avg. price (national) | — | €470,277 | — |
Three patterns set the 2026 baseline. First, value growth outran volume growth: deal value rose 21.7% while transactions rose only 8.6%, confirming that price appreciation drove the market, not merely more deals. Second, non-resident purchases fell 13.3% to 8,471, consistent with the October 2023 Golden Visa reform and buyers anticipating the September 2026 IMT flat rate. Third, new dwelling licences jumped 20.1% to 41,592 — the strongest licence pace in years — but licences are not instant completions; they feed the supply curve with an 18-36 month lag.
Regional concentration still shapes where international capital lands. The Algarve absorbed 42.4% of non-resident deal value nationally in 2025, while Greater Lisbon accounted for 12.5% of non-resident volume but 22.2% of non-resident value, reflecting higher average tickets in the capital metro. Porto and the North captured growing Brazilian and Angolan buyer share. Domestic demand and diaspora buyers, not a single foreign nationality, explain the +8.6% volume growth — a diversification that reduces tail-risk from one buyer cohort exiting.
Among foreign-born buyers nationally, Brazil led with 9,808 purchases, Angola with 4,145 and France with 3,765 in 2025. These cohorts behave differently: Brazilian buyers often seek employment-linked residency and urban rental stock; French and British buyers disproportionately target Algarve lifestyle assets. A forecast that treats “foreign buyer” as monolithic will misprice parish-level liquidity.
What does the Q1 2026 -4.7% QoQ signal mean?
INE’s Q1 2026 release recorded a -4.7% quarter-on-quarter dip in national residential transaction volume. Interpreting that number correctly separates serious forecasters from headline traders.
Winter seasonality always compresses Q1 activity in Portugal. Coastal markets slow; diaspora buyers delay until spring viewings. That alone explains part of the dip. But agent reporting and notary scheduling data from Lisbon, Cascais and Lagos in March-April 2026 add two structural explanations: (1) non-residents accelerating completions before the 1 September 2026 IMT deadline pulled some Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 demand forward; (2) sellers in prime parishes hold firm on 2025 asking prices after the +17.6% index, while value-sensitive buyers pause until financing costs clarify.
| Signal | Bullish read | Bearish read |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 volume -4.7% QoQ | Temporary seasonality; mortgage pipeline strong | Demand exhaustion after 2025 run |
| Front-loaded non-res completions | Clears pent-up tax-driven demand early | Leaves H2 2026 international void |
| Seller price stickiness | Supports price floor | Extends days-on-market in secondary stock |
| Euribor path | Stabilisation aids affordability | Re-acceleration kills marginal buyers |
Our base-case treats Q1 2026 as a warning flag, not a collapse. If Q2 2026 volume recovers to within 5% of Q2 2025 levels, the national forecast stays on track for mid-single-digit price growth. If Q2 prints another sequential decline, we downgrade the 2026 price band toward the bear scenario’s 0-3% range. Watch INE quarterly releases in July and October 2026 as the hard checkpoints.
Insider tip: Notary offices in Lisbon report bifurcated queues — premium stock under €700,000 in established parishes still books within three weeks, while 2022-2023 flip listings in secondary corridors sit 90+ days. Forecast at the parish level, not the national headline.
How will non-resident demand shape the 2026-2027 forecast?
Non-resident purchases fell 13.3% to 8,471 in 2025. That is not noise; it is a regime change. Direct property no longer qualifies for Golden Visa residency since October 2023. NHR closed to new applicants at end-2024. From 1 September 2026, Decree Law 97/2026 applies a flat 7.5% IMT on all non-resident residential purchases, replacing progressive bands that could yield lower effective rates on mid-market stock.
| Non-resident driver | 2025 outcome | 2026-2027 forecast impact |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Visa property route | Ended Oct 2023 | No migration-premium bid on new stock |
| IMT DL 97/2026 | Announced; effective Sep 2026 | Front-loaded H1 completions; softer H2+ |
| Algarve lifestyle demand | 42.4% of non-res value | Resilient in bull/base; vulnerable in bear |
| Diaspora (Brazil, Angola) | Volume leaders among foreign-born | Domestic financing access supports continuity |
| Average non-res ticket | €470,277 national | Premium segment less IMT-sensitive |
We forecast non-resident transaction count flat to down 5-8% in 2026 versus 2025, with partial recovery in 2027 only if lifestyle buyers accept the new tax normal and Euribor eases. Do not expect a return to 2019-2021 migration-driven bidding wars in Lisbon fringe parishes.
The September 2026 IMT cliff creates a predictable calendar effect. Our models assume 15-25% of full-year 2026 non-resident volume completes in July-August 2026 as buyers race the deadline. That distorts quarterly seasonality and can produce a misleading “crash” narrative in Q4 2026 if interpreted without the policy context. See worked examples and refund pathways in the IMT tax guide for non-residents.
For the honest asset-class verdict independent of forecast timing, read is Portugal property a good investment in 2026 — it separates residency goals from rental yield under the new tax regime.
Will 41,592 new licences ease the supply constraint by 2027?
Supply is the slow variable in Portuguese housing. INE reports 41,592 new dwelling licences issued in 2025, up 20.1% on 34,625 in 2024. AICCOPN and municipal planning data confirm concentration in suburban Lisbon (Loures, Odivelas, Amadora), greater Porto (Matosinhos, Vila Nova de Gaia) and selected Algarve corridors — not in the historic cores where international buyers compete hardest.
| Supply metric | 2024 | 2025 | Forecast use |
|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling licences | 34,625 | 41,592 | Pipeline indicator (+18-36m lag) |
| Licence growth rate | — | +20.1% | Supply response accelerating |
| Urban core completions | Constrained | Still constrained | Prime price support continues |
| Suburban new-build | Rising | Rising | Moderates fringe price growth by 2027 |
Licences are not keys in hand. Construction delays, labour costs and financing for developers mean many 2025 licences become 2027 deliveries. Our portugal property market forecast 2026 therefore keeps urban core undersupply as a price support through 2026, with suburban new-build gradually adding negotiable stock in 2027.
Red flag for buyers: agents marketing “brand-new” units should provide licença de utilização and developer solvency checks. Off-plan purchases in a rising-supply suburban corridor carry completion risk if the bear scenario freezes marginal demand. Full conveyancing checks remain in the due diligence guide.
What role does mortgage growth play in the forecast?
Domestic buyers finance a larger share of transactions than international headlines suggest. AICCOPN (Associação dos Industriais da Construção Civil e Obras Públicas) reported mortgage origination growth of approximately +31% in 2025 versus the prior year, as banks competed for qualified Portuguese and resident buyers amid stabilising Euribor levels after the 2022-2023 hiking cycle.
| Financing factor | 2025-2026 status | Forecast sensitivity |
|---|---|---|
| AICCOPN mortgage growth | +31% (2025) | Supports domestic volume in base/bull |
| Non-resident LTV | Typically 70-75% | Cash buyers dominate international segment |
| Euribor 12-month | Elevated vs 2021 lows | Bear case trigger if re-rises |
| Developer financing | Tighter on fringe projects | Supply delays if bear materialises |
Mortgage growth explains why national transaction volume can remain resilient even as non-resident purchases fall. Portuguese household formation, returning diaspora and resident foreign workers (Brazilian tech hires in Lisbon, healthcare workers in Porto) create financed demand that does not appear in “international buyer” marketing funnels.
In the bull scenario, sustained mortgage growth allows volume to hold near 165,000-170,000 transactions despite softer non-resident counts. In the bear scenario, a renewed Euribor spike plus IMT-driven international pause pushes volume below 155,000, which historically correlates with flatter price indices within 6-12 months.
Which policy levers will move the forecast in 2026-2027?
Policy is the highest-variance input in any portugal property market forecast 2026. Three levers dominate our models.
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IMT flat 7.5% for non-residents (from 1 September 2026). DL 97/2026 raises acquisition costs by €10,000-€20,000 on typical mid-market purchases. Stamp duty remains 0.8%. Total closing costs for non-residents reach 9-11% of purchase price. Policy intent: cool international residential demand while protecting domestic access. Forecast effect: H1 2026 completion rush, H2 2026+ international softness.
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Alojamento Local (AL) containment. RMAL rules effective from December 2025 restrict new short-term rental licences in Lisbon parishes where licensed AL stock exceeds 10% of housing. Several Algarve municipalities impose caps or condominium bans. Forecast effect: Algarve west coast retains more AL elasticity than Lisbon centre; parish-level price dispersion widens.
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Residency decoupled from property. Golden Visa direct purchase ended October 2023. The €500,000 CMVM fund route remains. Forecast effect: removes migration premium from pricing models; investment returns must stand on rent and appreciation alone.
| Policy | Effective | Bull impact | Bear impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMT 7.5% non-res | Sep 2026 | Front-loaded demand H1 | International freeze H2+ |
| RMAL AL caps | Dec 2025 | Shifts investor demand to Algarve | Compresses Lisbon AL flip thesis |
| Golden Visa RE ended | Oct 2023 | Cleaner price discovery | Non-res volume stays subdued |
We do not forecast new national rent control on existing private leases in 2026-2027 as a base-case assumption. Municipal moderate-rent programmes affect niche new-build segments, not the bulk resale market. If legislation surprises, revisit the bear scenario probability.
Regional forecast: where will prices move in 2026-2027?
National indices hide parish-level truth. Our regional portugal property market forecast 2026 splits the three markets international investors actually underwrite.
Lisbon metro forecast
Greater Lisbon captured 12.5% of non-resident transaction volume and 22.2% of non-resident value in 2025. Gross yields run 4.3-4.6% on long-term lets; RMAL containment limits new AL supply in central freguesias.
| Lisbon scenario | 2026 price change | 2027 price change | Volume outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +9% to +12% | +6% to +8% | Stable; prime liquidity strong |
| Base | +6% to +9% | +4% to +6% | Slight decline; secondary stock slower |
| Bear | +1% to +3% | 0% to +2% | Noticeable slowdown in fringe parishes |
Lisbon prime (Estrela, Campo de Ourique, Parque das Nações) benefits from employment growth and limited resale stock. Marvila and eastern corridor offer value but sensitive to new-build supply from 2025 licences maturing in 2027. Parish-level detail sits in the Lisbon property investment guide.
Porto metro forecast
Porto city gross yields near 5% attract yield-focused buyers priced out of Lisbon centre. Tech and shared-services employment support year-round tenant demand.
| Porto scenario | 2026 price change | 2027 price change | Volume outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +10% to +13% | +7% to +9% | Robust; Brazilian buyer share rises |
| Base | +7% to +10% | +5% to +7% | Healthy domestic financing |
| Bear | +2% to +4% | +1% to +3% | Suburban new-build negotiability rises |
Porto underperformed Lisbon on international marketing but outperformed on income returns in 2025. Our base case ranks Porto equal to Lisbon on price growth, ahead on gross yield, behind on non-resident deal value share.
Algarve forecast
The Algarve absorbed 42.4% of non-resident deal value nationally — the single largest international concentration. Gross yields span 4-6% depending on AL versus long-term strategy.
| Algarve scenario | 2026 price change | 2027 price change | Volume outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +8% to +11% | +5% to +8% | West coast prime still competitive |
| Base | +5% to +8% | +3% to +5% | Volume softer; prices sticky in prime |
| Bear | 0% to +3% | -1% to +2% | East Algarve inventory lingers |
Seasonality matters: winter occupancy drops outside resort communities. Forecast gross yields on summer peak weeks, and you will overstate annual cash flow. Municipality-level AL verification remains mandatory. See the Algarve property investment guide.
Bull, base and bear scenarios for 2026-2027
We consolidate inputs into three transparent scenarios. Assign your own probabilities; we weight base 55%, bull 25%, bear 20% as of June 2026.
Bull scenario (probability ~25%)
Assumptions: Euribor stable or down 50-75 bps; AICCOPN mortgage growth sustains above 20%; 41,592 licence pipeline delays persist; domestic wage growth supports affordability; non-resident H1 2026 rush recharges agent pipelines without permanent exit.
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| National price index | +10% to +14% | +6% to +9% |
| Transaction volume | 165,000-172,000 | 163,000-170,000 |
| Non-resident purchases | Flat to +3% | +5% to +8% |
| Gross yields (prime cities) | Compress 0.3-0.5 pp | Compress further |
Investor implication: Early 2026 entry wins on appreciation; late entrants face compressed yields. Long-term landlords in Lisbon and Porto benefit. Algarve AL operators need verified licences before prices embed tourism premiums.
Base scenario (probability ~55%)
Assumptions: Q1 2026 -4.7% QoQ partly reverses in Q2-Q3; IMT cliff pulls demand forward then normalises; 41,592 licences begin delivering suburban stock; non-resident purchases down 3-5% in 2026, flat in 2027.
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| National price index | +6% to +9% | +4% to +6% |
| Transaction volume | 160,000-168,000 | 158,000-166,000 |
| Non-resident purchases | -3% to -5% | Flat to -2% |
| Gross yields (prime cities) | Stable to -0.2 pp | Stable |
Investor implication: Matches our headline portugal property market forecast 2026. Buy with five-year hold, underwrite 3-4% net yield after IMI and management, and budget 9-11% acquisition costs if completing after September 2026. This is the scenario aligned with the Portugal property investment guide routing matrix.
Bear scenario (probability ~20%)
Assumptions: Euribor rises 100+ bps; Q2 2026 volume fails to recover; post-September IMT freezes discretionary non-res buying; global risk-off reduces lifestyle purchases; suburban supply delivers negotiable stock.
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| National price index | 0% to +3% | -2% to +1% |
| Transaction volume | Under 155,000 | 150,000-158,000 |
| Non-resident purchases | -8% to -12% | -5% to -8% |
| Gross yields (prime cities) | Rise 0.3-0.6 pp as prices stall | Rise further |
Investor implication: Cash buyers with patient capital gain negotiating power in 2027. Leveraged short-hold flips suffer. Interior and east Algarve stock shows longest days-on-market. Do not confuse bear with “market collapse” — INE’s 169,812-transaction depth implies orderly adjustment, not Spain-2008 dynamics.
Scenario comparison table
| Input | Bull | Base | Bear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euribor direction | Down / stable | Stable | Up |
| 2026 prices | +10-14% | +6-9% | 0-3% |
| 2027 prices | +6-9% | +4-6% | -2% to +1% |
| 2026 volume vs 2025 | Flat to up | Flat to -3% | -8% or worse |
| Non-res 2026 | Flat to +3% | -3% to -5% | -8% to -12% |
| Supply impact | Delayed | Gradual easing | Easing + demand hit |
| Best strategy | Buy prime early | Buy and hold 5yr+ | Wait or negotiate 2027 |
How should investors use this forecast before making an offer?
Forecasts inform timing and parish selection; they do not replace due diligence. Translate the scenario bands into a personal stress test.
Step 1 — Pick your scenario weights. If you are risk-averse, underwrite the bear case on exit price and still clear your return hurdle. If you are optimistic, do not use bull-case appreciation to rescue a deal that fails base-case net yield.
Step 2 — Model net yield, not gross headlines. INE’s +17.6% price growth in 2025 means entry costs rose faster than rents in many parishes. Gross yields of 4-5% in Lisbon and Porto often net to 2.8-3.8% after IMI, condominium, management and non-resident rental tax. Use the Portugal rental yield guide for regional bands.
Step 3 — Time IMT exposure deliberately. Non-residents completing before 1 September 2026 may save materially on mid-market IMT. If you cannot, recalculate on the 7.5% flat rate per IMT tax for non-residents. A €400,000 purchase carries €30,000 IMT alone after September versus roughly €12,000-16,000 under the old progressive scale for many buyers.
Step 4 — Verify parish liquidity for your hold period. Lisbon prime and Algarve west coast exit within 30-45 days in base and bull cases. Secondary interior stock may sit 90+ days even in bull conditions. Liquidity risk dominates bear scenarios.
Step 5 — Separate residency from property. No scenario restores Golden Visa via direct purchase. If residency is the goal, parallel fund or visa routes while renting is cleaner than forcing a home purchase to carry migration logic.
| Decision | Bull-friendly action | Bear-friendly action |
|---|---|---|
| Non-res buyer | Complete before Sep 2026 if deal clean | Delay to 2027 for negotiation |
| Long-term landlord | Buy Lisbon/Porto professional lets | Demand yield premium before CPCV |
| Algarve AL operator | Secure transferable RNAL now | Avoid unlicensed AL thesis |
| Cash diversifier | Accept 3-4% net at entry | Target distressed secondary stock |
What could invalidate this forecast?
Intellectual honesty requires naming tripwires that force a model revision.
Upside surprises: Faster Euribor cuts than priced; mortgage growth above +35% again; construction delays worse than expected; EU structural funds accelerating urban regeneration; Brazilian real-estate diaspora accelerating faster than 2025 INE cohorts suggest.
Downside surprises: Global recession reducing tourism spend in the Algarve; renewed banking tightening on developer loans; unexpected national housing tax on vacant stock; political acceleration of rent-control debates; earthquake or climate insurance repricing on coastal stock.
Data checkpoints to watch: INE quarterly transaction releases (especially Q2 and Q3 2026); Banco de Portugal mortgage statistics; AICCOPN construction cost index; municipal AL licence issuance in Lisbon and Faro districts; Euribor 3-month and 12-month prints.
We will not pretend precision to the decimal. Scenario ranges exist so you can ask: “If bear materialises, am I still solvent and willing to hold?” If the answer is no, the forecast just saved you from a bad CPCV.
Bottom line: portugal property market forecast 2026-2027
Portugal enters 2026 with record depth — 169,812 transactions and €41.2 billion in deal value — and record momentum — +17.6% national price growth. That combination rarely sustains unchanged into a second year. Q1 2026’s -4.7% quarter-on-quarter volume dip, non-resident purchases down 13.3%, and the September 7.5% IMT inflection point point toward slower appreciation and selective volume softness, not a national crash.
Our base-case portugal property market forecast 2026 is +6% to +9% national price growth with transactions roughly flat to down 3%. 2027 moderates to +4% to +6% as 41,592 licensed units from 2025 mature into deliverable suburban stock. The bull case reaches double-digit price growth if mortgages sustain +31% momentum and supply delays persist. The bear case flattens prices if Euribor rises and international buyers pause after the IMT cliff.
Regional leaders remain Lisbon and Porto on price resilience and employment-linked demand; the Algarve on non-resident value share (42.4% nationally) and tourism premiums, with seasonality and AL rules as the offsetting risks. Investors who match parish to scenario, underwrite net yield after tax, and complete lawyer-led due diligence before CPCV can still justify allocation in the base case. Investors who need migration through property alone, or 8%+ net yield without operational work, will find the forecast incompatible with their thesis regardless of scenario.
For implementation — regional routing, yield maths, CPCV mechanics and scam avoidance — continue to the Portugal property investment guide. For the direct “should I buy?” answer against 2026 conditions, read is Portugal property a good investment in 2026. For acquisition tax timing that can shift your personal outcome between scenarios, study IMT for non-residents.
Frequently Asked Questions
Our base-case forecast for 2026 is national price growth of 6-9% and transaction volume roughly flat to down 3% versus 2025's 169,812 sales. INE's Q1 2026 signal of -4.7% quarter-on-quarter volume, the flat 7.5% IMT for non-residents from September 2026, and 41,592 new dwelling licences suggest cooling international demand offset by domestic buyers and mortgage growth of 31% reported by AICCOPN. Lisbon and Porto may outperform on price; the Algarve may see slower volume but resilient prime values.
Prices are likely to rise in 2026, but at a slower pace than the +17.6% INE index recorded in 2025. Structural undersupply in Lisbon and Porto urban cores, plus 41,592 licensed new units still below household formation in key metros, supports prices. The bear scenario allows 0-3% national price growth if Euribor stays elevated and non-resident demand falls further after the September IMT reform. The bull scenario reaches 10-14% if mortgage approvals sustain momentum and completions disappoint.
INE recorded 169,812 residential transactions in 2025, up 8.6% on 2024, with aggregate deal value of €41.2 billion (+21.7%). The national residential price index rose 17.6% year-on-year. Non-resident purchases fell 13.3% to 8,471. New dwelling licences issued reached 41,592, up 20.1% on 2024. These figures form the baseline for any 2026-2027 forecast.
INE's Q1 2026 release showed a -4.7% quarter-on-quarter dip in national transaction volume. Part of this is normal winter seasonality, but agents also report buyers accelerating escrituras before the 1 September 2026 IMT deadline and sellers holding premium stock. If Q2 2026 volume does not recover above Q1 levels, the base-case shifts toward flat national prices in H2 2026 rather than mid-single-digit growth.
Decree Law 97/2026 imposes a flat 7.5% IMT on all non-resident residential purchases from 1 September 2026, plus 0.8% stamp duty. On a €400,000 apartment, IMT alone is €30,000 versus roughly €12,000-16,000 under the old progressive scale. We forecast a front-loaded Q2-Q3 2026 completion wave among non-residents, then softer international volume in Q4 2026 and 2027 unless buyers restructure tax residency or use moderate-rent relief routes.
Non-resident purchases fell 13.3% to 8,471 in 2025 after the Golden Visa property route ended in October 2023. A full rebound is unlikely in 2026-2027 because direct property no longer delivers residency and IMT costs rise from September 2026. The Algarve still captured 42.4% of non-resident deal value nationally in 2025. Expect selective return of lifestyle and diaspora buyers, not a repeat of 2019-2021 migration-driven volume.
41,592 new dwelling licences in 2025 (+20.1% year-on-year) is the strongest pipeline since before the 2008 crisis, but completions lag licences by 18-36 months and concentrate in suburban Lisbon, Matosinhos and peripheral Porto. Central Lisbon and Cascais stock remains constrained. Supply will moderate price growth in suburban corridors by 2027, but is insufficient on its own to reverse the national index without a demand shock.
Bull case: prices +10-14% in 2026, +6-9% in 2027; volume stable near 165,000-170,000; mortgage growth sustains domestic demand. Base case: prices +6-9% in 2026, +4-6% in 2027; volume 160,000-168,000; non-resident share stabilises. Bear case: prices +0-3% in 2026, flat to -2% in 2027; volume below 155,000; Euribor and IMT combine to freeze discretionary international buying.
Lisbon metro and Porto city are forecast to lead on price resilience due to employment growth, tech-sector tenants and limited prime resale stock. The Algarve may see slower transaction counts but continued strength in west-coast prime where non-residents still allocate 42.4% of national international deal value. Interior and Silver Coast value markets may offer higher gross yields but weaker exit liquidity if the bear scenario materialises.
Non-residents who can complete escritura before 1 September 2026 may save €10,000-20,000 in IMT on typical €350,000-€500,000 purchases versus the flat 7.5% rate. That timing advantage does not override due diligence: penhoras, illegal structures and invalid AL licences remain deal-breakers regardless of tax. If you cannot accelerate completion, re-underwrite net yield on the higher capital base and read the full IMT guide before offer.
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